Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Rudy McRompson's Strategy to handle the war issue

Bill Maher posed a question during a recent appearance on "The Situation Room" that Ron Paul supporters would do well to try and answer.

"How does a Republican who is supporting this war to the degree that they are all supporting this war then turn around after he gets the nomination then turns around and wins the general election in a country that is overwhelmingly against this war?"



While their strategy does demand some degree of political gymnastics, it's not out of the realm of possibility. It's common knowledge that a candidate should swing towards their base during the primary and then swing back moderate for the general election. They certainly have to come out strongly for the war during the fall, and all of the ersatz "top-tier" Republican candidates are doing just that. They have carefully nuanced their positions such that they are for the war, but not necessarily supporting the President or this administration's execution of the war. This enables them to let Bush and Petraeus shoulder a large part of that burden. McCain's campaign has been somewhat stymied by his position on Iraq, but the rest seem to be making it through alright. They are still arguing staunchly in favor of the surge and an American presence in Iraq, which they perceive to be requirements to win a Republican primary.

However, I predict that you will see the rhetoric soften as the general election comes closer. Sometime shortly after the GOP candidate is selected, the Republican candidate for president will propose an end to the surge, followed by gradual troop withdrawals. It is expected that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. Hillary will not propose an immediate withdrawal of troops; instead she will offer timetables for withdrawal, and eventually decreasing our commitment to something like the level of American troops in South Korea. The Republican candidate offers a slightly longer deescalation period and a slightly higher troop level and Bingo! The two sides are back to quibbling over political pittance rather than substantive policy.

This move by the GOP candidate may be facilitated by the president, through declaring mission accomplished or by suddenly becoming frustrated with the pace of Iraqi government and demanding the Iraqis fight for their own democracy. Perhaps Petraeus will brought back again to testify in front of Congress.

So what can Ron Paul supporters do? Write. Call. Donate. This sort of political maneuvering is par for the course; make it known that Ron Paul is not more of the same. Winning the presidency is goal, and winning some primaries would be a propitious first step.

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